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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Probability

45.6%↓ 5.5

Volume

$457K

Liquidity

$158K

Resolves

Dec 10, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

76.0%

Spread

2.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 76%, down 5.5 points in the last 24 hours on $29K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 76.0% and 92.0%, trending downward by 3.5 points overall. Liquidity of $158K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 76.0% low.
+Sustained volume ($457K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 76%, YES pays roughly 1.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 92.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 76%, NO pays roughly 4.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 16
Charted period opens at 79.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 29
Period high: 92.0%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Period low: 76.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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