Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?

Probability

60.0%↑ 67.0

Volume

$484K

Liquidity

$76K

Resolves

Jul 3, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

—

Midpoint

100.0%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 100%, up 67.0 points in the last 24 hours on $201K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.8% and 100.0%, trending upward by 74.0 points overall. Liquidity of $76K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 26.0% to 100.0%.
+Sustained volume ($484K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 100%, YES pays roughly 1.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 1.8% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 100%, NO pays roughly —x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 67.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 23
Charted period opens at 26.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 1
Period low: 1.8%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Period high: 100.0%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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