Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?

Probability

6.1%↑ 6.1

Volume

$170K

Liquidity

$13K

Resolves

Oct 2, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

10.1%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 10.1%, up 6.1 points in the last 24 hours on $96K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.4% and 18.5%, trending downward by 1.4 points overall. Liquidity of $13K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 1.4% low.
+Sustained volume ($170K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 10.1%, YES pays roughly 9.9x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 18.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 10.1%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 6.1-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 22
Charted period opens at 11.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 28
Period high: 18.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 1
Period low: 1.4%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Currently 10.1%
Latest print with $96K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 25 12:00 PM ET to October 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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