Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Probability

0.8%↑ 0.3

Volume

$327K

Liquidity

$300K

Resolves

Jun 17, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

1.3%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 1.3%, up 0.3 points in the last 24 hours on $14K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.8% and 8.0%, trending downward by 5.3 points overall. Liquidity of $300K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.8% low.
+Sustained volume ($327K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 1.3%, YES pays roughly 76.9x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 8.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 1.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.3-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 6.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 4
Period high: 8.0%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 2
Period low: 0.8%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 1.3%
Latest print with $14K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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