Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Summary

The market prices YES at 8.6%, down 0.6 points in the last 24 hours on $17K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 5.0% and 41.6%, trending upward by 2.8 points overall. Liquidity of $72K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.6-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 5.8%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 4

   Period low: 5.0%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jun 18

   Period high: 41.6%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

4. Jul 3

   Currently 8.6%

   Latest print with $17K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources