Fed rate hike in 2026?

Summary

The market prices YES at 47.5%, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours on $30K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 28.5% and 65.5%, trending upward by 8.0 points overall. Liquidity of $178K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 1.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 39.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 17

   Period low: 28.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jun 19

   Period high: 65.5%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

4. Jul 3

   Currently 47.5%

   Latest print with $30K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources