Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Probability

51.3%↑ 1.0

Volume

$4.8M

Liquidity

$2.1M

Resolves

Jul 3, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

85.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 85.5%, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours on $3.9M of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 83.5% and 86.5%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $2.1M makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 85.5% to 85.5%.
+Sustained volume ($4.8M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 85.5%, YES pays roughly 1.2x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 83.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 85.5%, NO pays roughly 6.9x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 1.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 27
Charted period opens at 85.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 28
Period high: 86.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 30
Period low: 83.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 85.5%
Latest print with $3.9M of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 3, 2026 If Argentina wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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