Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…
Probability
Volume
Liquidity
Resolves
Best bid
Best ask
Midpoint
Spread
Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…
The market prices YES at 80.5%, down 5.0 points in the last 24 hours on $13K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 63.0% and 93.5%, trending upward by 15.0 points overall. Liquidity of $5K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.
This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.
Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.
Charted period opens at 65.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Period low: 63.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Period high: 93.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Currently 80.5%
Latest print with $13K of 24h volume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.