US Cremonese vs. UC Sampdoria: Neither team to score first?

Summary

The market prices YES at 50%, up 39.5 points in the last 24 hours on $312 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 9.5% and 50.0%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $100 makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 39.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Aug 4

   Charted period opens at 50.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Aug 15

   Period low: 9.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Aug 17

   Currently 50%

   Latest print with $312 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming match between US Cremonese and UC Sampdoria, scheduled for August 17, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "US Cremonese" if US Cremonese are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "UC Sampdoria" if UC Sampdoria are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Sources