Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Probability

60.0%↑ 50.0

Volume

$2K

Liquidity

$7K

Resolves

Aug 24, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

—

Midpoint

100.0%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 100%, up 50.0 points in the last 24 hours on $2K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 45.5% and 100.0%, trending upward by 43.0 points overall. Liquidity of $7K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 57.0% to 100.0%.
+Sustained volume ($2K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 100%, YES pays roughly 1.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 45.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 100%, NO pays roughly —x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 50.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 57.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 2
Period low: 45.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period high: 100.0%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for May 24 at 1:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the St. Louis Cardinals or Cincinnati Reds. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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