Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Summary

The market prices YES at 12.5%, up 2.0 points in the last 24 hours on $84K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 10.0% and 29.5%, trending downward by 12.0 points overall. Liquidity of $47K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 2.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 24

   Charted period opens at 24.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 25

   Period high: 29.5%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 2

   Period low: 10.0%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

4. Jul 3

   Currently 12.5%

   Latest print with $84K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Sources