Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Summary

The market prices YES at 11.5%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $581K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 8.5% and 16.5%, trending upward by 3.0 points overall. Liquidity of $2.1M makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 8.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 26

   Period high: 16.5%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 3

   Currently 11.5%

   Latest print with $581K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources