Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?

Probability

19.5%↓ 5.5

Volume

$277K

Liquidity

$18K

Resolves

Oct 16, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

32.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 32.5%, down 5.5 points in the last 24 hours on $50K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 32.5% and 71.5%, trending downward by 34.0 points overall. Liquidity of $18K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 32.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($277K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 32.5%, YES pays roughly 3.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 71.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 32.5%, NO pays roughly 1.5x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 23
Charted period opens at 66.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 24
Period high: 71.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Period low: 32.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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