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Probability
Volume
Liquidity
Resolves
Best bid
Best ask
Midpoint
Spread
Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…
The market prices YES at 3.7%, down 0.8 points in the last 24 hours on $98K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 3.5% and 6.5%, trending downward by 1.9 points overall. Liquidity of $367K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.
This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.8-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.
Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.
Charted period opens at 5.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Period high: 6.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Period low: 3.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Currently 3.7%
Latest print with $98K of 24h volume.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.