Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Probability

0.2%↑ 0.0

Volume

$3.3M

Liquidity

$105K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.4%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.4%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $63K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.3% and 0.9%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $105K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.4% to 0.4%.
+Sustained volume ($3.3M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.4%, YES pays roughly 250.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.3% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.4%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.4%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 8
Period low: 0.3%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 12
Period high: 0.9%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.4%
Latest print with $63K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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