Will 60 to 79 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026?

Summary

The market prices YES at 32%, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours on $386 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 13.5% and 49.5%, trending downward by 17.5 points overall. Liquidity of $536 makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 1.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jul 28

   Charted period opens at 49.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Aug 13

   Period low: 13.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Aug 17

   Currently 32%

   Latest print with $386 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Sources