Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

Probability

1.8%↑ 0.0

Volume

$466K

Liquidity

$19K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

3.0%

Spread

0.4%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 3%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $659 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.8% and 3.3%, trending upward by 0.5 points overall. Liquidity of $19K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 2.5% to 3.0%.
+Sustained volume ($466K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 3%, YES pays roughly 33.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 1.8% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 2.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 9
Period low: 1.8%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 16
Period high: 3.3%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 3%
Latest print with $659 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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Summary

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 2.5% to 3.0%.
+Sustained volume ($466K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 3%, YES pays roughly 33.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 1.8% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.