Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Probability

0.5%↑ 0.4

Volume

$406K

Liquidity

$39K

Resolves

Jul 12, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.9%

Spread

0.2%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.9%, up 0.4 points in the last 24 hours on $59K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.4% and 1.6%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $39K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.9% to 0.9%.
+Sustained volume ($406K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.9%, YES pays roughly 111.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.4% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.9%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.4-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.9%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 7
Period high: 1.6%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 30
Period low: 0.4%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.9%
Latest print with $59K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Wimbledon (https://www.wimbledon.com/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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