Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Probability

6.6%↓ 6.5

Volume

$111K

Liquidity

$26K

Resolves

Aug 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

11.0%

Spread

2.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 11%, down 6.5 points in the last 24 hours on $7K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 7.0% and 49.5%, trending downward by 0.5 points overall. Liquidity of $26K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 7.0% low.
+Sustained volume ($111K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 11%, YES pays roughly 9.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 49.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 11%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 6.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 11.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 27
Period low: 7.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 5
Period high: 49.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 11%
Latest print with $7K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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