Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Probability

51.6%↑ 5.5

Volume

$83K

Liquidity

$10K

Resolves

Aug 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

87.5%

Spread

5.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 86%, up 5.5 points in the last 24 hours on $3K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 39.0% and 91.5%, trending upward by 9.0 points overall. Liquidity of $10K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 78.5% to 87.5%.
+Sustained volume ($83K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 86%, YES pays roughly 1.2x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 39.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 86%, NO pays roughly 7.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 78.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 24
Period high: 91.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 4
Period low: 39.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 86%
Latest print with $3K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

What news has moved "3rd Largest Company end of August?" recently?Explain the resolution criteria in plain language What are the highest-volume markets right now?Show me markets ending soon

Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…