Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Probability

0.4%↑ 0.0

Volume

$514K

Liquidity

$121K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.5%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.6%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $33K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.4% and 2.9%, trending upward by 0.1 points overall. Liquidity of $121K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.4% to 0.5%.
+Sustained volume ($514K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.6%, YES pays roughly 166.7x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.4% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.6%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.4%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 21
Period high: 2.9%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.6%
Latest print with $33K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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