Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Probability

59.5%↑ 0.4

Volume

$846K

Liquidity

$206K

Resolves

Aug 18, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

99.2%

Spread

0.2%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 99.2%, up 0.4 points in the last 24 hours on $341K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 95.5% and 99.3%, trending upward by 3.0 points overall. Liquidity of $206K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 96.2% to 99.2%.
+Sustained volume ($846K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 99.2%, YES pays roughly 1.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 95.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 99.2%, NO pays roughly 125.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.4-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 96.2%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 20
Period low: 95.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period high: 99.3%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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