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Probability
Volume
Liquidity
Resolves
Best bid
Best ask
Midpoint
Spread
Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…
The market prices YES at 11.5%, down 10.5 points in the last 24 hours on $11K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 6.0% and 22.5%, trending downward by 1.5 points overall. Liquidity of $24K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.
This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 10.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.
Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.
Charted period opens at 13.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Period low: 6.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Period high: 22.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Currently 11.5%
Latest print with $11K of 24h volume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is added to the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying addition occurs when the specified company that was unnamed in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying addition must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of addition. Addition of a subsidiary or parent company of the specified company will qualify. An addition will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the company is added but its status is unenforced, the addition will still qualify. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).