Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Summary

The market prices YES at 3.3%, down 0.3 points in the last 24 hours on $161K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 3.3% and 7.2%, trending downward by 3.1 points overall. Liquidity of $799K makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.3-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 6.3%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 10

   Period high: 7.2%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 3

   Period low: 3.3%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Sources