Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Summary

The market prices YES at 100%, up 0.1 points in the last 24 hours on $29K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 8.3% and 100.0%, trending upward by 58.5 points overall. Liquidity of $1.5M makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.1-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 17

   Charted period opens at 41.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 30

   Period low: 8.3%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 3

   Period high: 100.0%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

In April 2026, Anthropic released the AI model "Claude Mythos 5" in limited availability to approved partners in its Project Glasswing security program. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to Mythos 5 for all customers in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to "Claude Mythos 5," or a model confirmed to be the same model, to at least one US partner or client whose access was previously rescinded, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos 5" or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to accessibility for at least one partner or client whose access was previously rescinded. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Sources