Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.2%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $14K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 48.0%, trending downward by 47.9 points overall. Liquidity of $85K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jul 31

   Charted period opens at 48.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Aug 9

   Period low: 0.1%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Aug 17

   Currently 0.2%

   Latest print with $14K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources