Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Probability

0.2%↑ 0.1

Volume

$34.6M

Liquidity

$22K

Resolves

Jun 1, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.3%

Spread

0.4%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.3%, up 0.1 points in the last 24 hours on $5.7M of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 1.1%, trending upward by 0.3 points overall. Liquidity of $22K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.1% to 0.3%.
+Sustained volume ($34.6M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.3%, YES pays roughly 333.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.1% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.1-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.1%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 23
Period high: 1.1%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.3%
Latest print with $5.7M of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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