Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Probability

0.2%↑ 0.0

Volume

$1.7M

Liquidity

$117K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.4%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.4%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $405K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.4% and 1.2%, trending downward by 0.1 points overall. Liquidity of $117K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.4% low.
+Sustained volume ($1.7M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.4%, YES pays roughly 250.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.2% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.4%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 16
Period high: 1.2%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 30
Period low: 0.4%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.4%
Latest print with $405K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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Summary

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.4% low.
+Sustained volume ($1.7M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.4%, YES pays roughly 250.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.2% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.4%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.