Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?

Summary

The market prices YES at 4.3%, down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours on $802 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.5% and 50.5%, trending downward by 41.8 points overall. Liquidity of $4K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.5-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 46.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 26

   Period low: 1.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 3

   Currently 4.3%

   Latest print with $802 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Sources