Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?

Probability

6.6%↑ 5.0

Volume

$197K

Liquidity

$10K

Resolves

Aug 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

11.0%

Spread

2.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 11%, up 5.0 points in the last 24 hours on $12K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 5.5% and 54.5%, trending downward by 26.5 points overall. Liquidity of $10K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 5.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($197K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 11%, YES pays roughly 9.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 54.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 11%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 37.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 23
Period high: 54.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period low: 5.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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