Will Hong Kong have 700mm or more of precipitation in August?

Probability

5.7%↓ 15.5

Volume

$2K

Liquidity

$692

Resolves

Aug 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

9.5%

Spread

5.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 9.5%, down 15.5 points in the last 24 hours on $267 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 7.0% and 70.5%, trending downward by 41.5 points overall. Liquidity of $692 makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 7.0% low.
+Sustained volume ($2K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 9.5%, YES pays roughly 10.5x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 70.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 9.5%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 15.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 28
Charted period opens at 51.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 3
Period high: 70.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 13
Period low: 7.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 9.5%
Latest print with $267 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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