Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.7%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $33K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.7% and 0.7%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $2.6M makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 0.7%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jul 3

   Currently 0.7%

   Latest print with $33K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Sources