Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Probability

0.4%↑ 0.0

Volume

$37.9M

Liquidity

$1.9M

Resolves

Nov 7, 2028

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.7%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.7%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $296K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.7% and 0.7%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $1.9M makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.7% to 0.7%.
+Sustained volume ($37.9M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.7%, YES pays roughly 142.9x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.7% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.7%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.7%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 3
Currently 0.7%
Latest print with $296K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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