Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Probability

32.4%↑ 9.0

Volume

$3.3M

Liquidity

$90K

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

53.3%

Spread

1.3%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 54%, up 9.0 points in the last 24 hours on $209K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 13.8% and 60.3%, trending upward by 37.5 points overall. Liquidity of $90K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 16.4% to 53.9%.
+Sustained volume ($3.3M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 54%, YES pays roughly 1.9x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 13.8% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 54%, NO pays roughly 2.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 9.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 2
Charted period opens at 16.4%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 4
Period low: 13.8%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 1
Period high: 60.3%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Currently 54%
Latest print with $209K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Sources

Polymarket market page

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