Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Probability

0.2%↓ 1.5

Volume

$2.0M

Liquidity

$334K

Resolves

TBD

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.3%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.3%, down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours on $252K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.3% and 65.5%, trending downward by 4.1 points overall. Liquidity of $334K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.3% low.
+Sustained volume ($2.0M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.3%, YES pays roughly 333.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 65.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 1.5-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 4.3%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 28
Period high: 65.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Period low: 0.3%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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Summary

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.3% low.
+Sustained volume ($2.0M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.3%, YES pays roughly 333.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 65.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.