Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Probability

9.0%↑ 2.0

Volume

$27K

Liquidity

$24K

Resolves

Jul 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

15.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 15%, up 2.0 points in the last 24 hours on $3K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 4.5% and 23.0%, trending downward by 7.5 points overall. Liquidity of $24K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 4.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($27K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 15%, YES pays roughly 6.7x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 23.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 15%, NO pays roughly 1.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 2.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 25
Charted period opens at 23.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 1
Period low: 4.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 15%
Latest print with $3K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

What news has moved "2nd Largest Company end of July?" recently?Explain the resolution criteria in plain language What are the highest-volume markets right now?Show me markets ending soon

Synora is researching — reading markets, searching the news…