Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?

Probability

0.1%↓ 0.1

Volume

$203K

Liquidity

$60K

Resolves

TBD

Best bid

—

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.1%

Spread

0.3%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.2%, down 0.1 points in the last 24 hours on $10K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 1.4%, trending downward by 1.0 points overall. Liquidity of $60K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.1% low.
+Sustained volume ($203K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.2%, YES pays roughly 500.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.4% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.2%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.1-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 1.1%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 20
Period high: 1.4%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 15
Period low: 0.1%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 0.2%
Latest print with $10K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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