Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Probability

33.3%↑ 3.0

Volume

$584K

Liquidity

$61K

Resolves

Oct 5, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

55.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 55.5%, up 3.0 points in the last 24 hours on $92K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 22.0% and 55.5%, trending upward by 25.0 points overall. Liquidity of $61K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 30.5% to 55.5%.
+Sustained volume ($584K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 55.5%, YES pays roughly 1.8x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 22.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 55.5%, NO pays roughly 2.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 3.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 2
Charted period opens at 30.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 4
Period low: 22.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Sep 30
Period high: 55.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Currently 55.5%
Latest print with $92K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Sources

Polymarket market page

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