Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Probability

0.4%↑ 0.0

Volume

$5.1M

Liquidity

$305K

Resolves

Apr 30, 2027

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.7%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.7%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $299K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.7% and 0.7%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $305K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.7% to 0.7%.
+Sustained volume ($5.1M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.7%, YES pays roughly 142.9x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.7% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.7%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.7%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 3
Currently 0.7%
Latest print with $299K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Sources

Polymarket market page

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