Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?

Probability

46.5%↑ 10.5

Volume

$5K

Liquidity

$6K

Resolves

Sep 15, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

77.5%

Spread

5.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 77.5%, up 10.5 points in the last 24 hours on $2K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 66.0% and 88.5%, trending upward by 6.0 points overall. Liquidity of $6K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 71.5% to 77.5%.
+Sustained volume ($5K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 77.5%, YES pays roughly 1.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 66.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 77.5%, NO pays roughly 4.4x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 10.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Aug 7
Charted period opens at 71.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 9
Period high: 88.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period low: 66.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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