Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?

Probability

10.5%↓ 10.0

Volume

$401K

Liquidity

$227K

Resolves

TBD

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

17.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 17.5%, down 10.0 points in the last 24 hours on $212K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 12.5% and 27.5%, trending downward by 6.5 points overall. Liquidity of $227K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 12.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($401K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 17.5%, YES pays roughly 5.7x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 27.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 17.5%, NO pays roughly 1.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 10.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Aug 10
Charted period opens at 24.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 14
Period low: 12.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 15
Period high: 27.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 17.5%
Latest print with $212K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Esports World Cup; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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