Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Probability

0.2%↓ 0.1

Volume

$2.6M

Liquidity

$370K

Resolves

Oct 4, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.3%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.3%, down 0.1 points in the last 24 hours on $58K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 0.6%, trending upward by 0.0 points overall. Liquidity of $370K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 0.3% to 0.3%.
+Sustained volume ($2.6M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.3%, YES pays roughly 333.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 0.1% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.1-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 0.3%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 17
Period low: 0.1%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 1
Period high: 0.6%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.3%
Latest print with $58K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Sources

Polymarket market page

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