Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Probability

25.0%↓ 8.9

Volume

$141K

Liquidity

$5K

Resolves

Jan 1, 2027

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

41.7%

Spread

1.2%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 41.7%, down 8.9 points in the last 24 hours on $14K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 3.6% and 59.2%, trending upward by 32.2 points overall. Liquidity of $5K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 9.5% to 41.7%.
+Sustained volume ($141K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 41.7%, YES pays roughly 2.4x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 3.6% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 41.7%, NO pays roughly 1.7x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 8.9-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Sep 2
Charted period opens at 9.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Sep 9
Period low: 3.6%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 1
Period high: 59.2%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Oct 2
Currently 41.7%
Latest print with $14K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Sources

Polymarket market page

Keep researching

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Summary

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 9.5% to 41.7%.
+Sustained volume ($141K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 41.7%, YES pays roughly 2.4x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 3.6% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 41.7%, NO pays roughly 1.7x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.