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Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Probability

3.9%↑ 0.0

Volume

$24.8M

Liquidity

$718K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

6.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 6.5%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $116K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 6.5% and 10.5%, trending downward by 3.0 points overall. Liquidity of $718K makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 6.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($24.8M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 6.5%, YES pays roughly 15.4x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 10.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 6.5%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 9.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 18
Period high: 10.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 4
Period low: 6.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 6.5%
Latest print with $116K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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