Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?

Summary

The market prices YES at 36.5%, down 16.5 points in the last 24 hours on $9K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 28.5% and 53.0%, trending downward by 13.5 points overall. Liquidity of $5K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 16.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jul 1

   Charted period opens at 50.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jul 2

   Period high: 53.0%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 3

   Period low: 28.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/47)

Sources