Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 32 be less than 0.1?

Probability

55.5%↑ 21.5

Volume

$2K

Liquidity

$550

Resolves

Aug 21, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

92.5%

Spread

7.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 92.5%, up 21.5 points in the last 24 hours on $709 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 40.0% and 95.5%, trending upward by 42.5 points overall. Liquidity of $550 makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 50.0% to 92.5%.
+Sustained volume ($2K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 92.5%, YES pays roughly 1.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 40.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 92.5%, NO pays roughly 13.3x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 21.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Aug 14
Charted period opens at 50.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 16
Period low: 40.0%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period high: 95.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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