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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Probability

10.5%↑ 1.0

Volume

$58.8M

Liquidity

$954K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

17.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 17.5%, up 1.0 points in the last 24 hours on $161K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 14.5% and 31.5%, trending downward by 9.0 points overall. Liquidity of $954K makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 14.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($58.8M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 17.5%, YES pays roughly 5.7x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 31.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 17.5%, NO pays roughly 1.2x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 1.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 26.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 19
Period high: 31.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 5
Period low: 14.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Currently 17.5%
Latest print with $161K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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