Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Probability

59.5%↑ 3.1

Volume

$4K

Liquidity

$9K

Resolves

Jul 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

99.1%

Spread

1.5%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 99.1%, up 3.1 points in the last 24 hours on $767 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 50.0% and 99.1%, trending upward by 49.1 points overall. Liquidity of $9K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 50.0% to 99.1%.
+Sustained volume ($4K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 99.1%, YES pays roughly 1.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 50.0% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 99.1%, NO pays roughly 111.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 3.1-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 1
Charted period opens at 50.0%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 3
Period high: 99.1%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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