Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Probability

0.1%↓ 0.5

Volume

$159K

Liquidity

$95K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

—

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.1%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.1%, down 0.5 points in the last 24 hours on $12K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 1.5%, trending downward by 1.4 points overall. Liquidity of $95K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.1% low.
+Sustained volume ($159K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.1%, YES pays roughly 1000.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.1%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.5-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 1.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Aug 17
Period low: 0.1%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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