Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?

Probability

0.2%↓ 0.4

Volume

$815

Liquidity

$2K

Resolves

Jul 5, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.3%

Spread

0.3%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.3%, down 0.4 points in the last 24 hours on $494 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.3% and 40.5%, trending downward by 37.3 points overall. Liquidity of $2K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.3% low.
+Sustained volume ($815 lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.3%, YES pays roughly 333.3x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 40.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.3%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.4-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 26
Charted period opens at 37.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 3
Period low: 0.3%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 29, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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